Investigating the Impact of Sanctions on the Supply Chain of Iran's Oil Industry with a Systems Dynamics Approach

Any kind of disturbance in extraction, sale, import and export of oil and gas has an undeniable role in the economic stability of the country. Therefore, in this research, using a systems dynamics model, the impact of sanctions on the supply chain of Iran's oil industry has been investigated. The subsystems diagram and the cause and effect diagram have been compiled by considering the variables identified with the help of foundation data theory, and the effect of importing raw materials on capacity development and the effect of increasing the cost of raw materials on the localization of raw material production in the oil industry has been modeled. The results showed that the effort to neutralize the sanctions of the oil industry with the help of knowledge-based companies can increase the income by 418% within the next ten years, but by investing in the development of the production capacity of petroleum products, it can increase the income by 27% and make the country against Resist sanctions.